LOl... So we gotta start this week with 1 thing...
Bones just scored 199.88 points in a single week. To which I gotta say...
Well done! Highest point total of the year. We don't have any league prizes to give for that, Bones, but if we ever meet in person, I'll buy ya a beer. Impressive!
Week 13 Results
- Prestige Worldwide (10-3) def Beer is my Patronus (5-8), 153.28 to 135.98: This one was settled by the end of Sunday night, as neither team had anyone going Monday. Prestige was led by Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins, and Puka Nacua all having great games, while Patronus had massive bye and injury problems, resulting in zeroes on the board from Royce Freeman and Robert Woods, who wouldn't have been in the starting lineup most week. I'll cover the playoff outcomes below, but we already knew Prestige was in, and Patronus might still be on life support for a way in.
- Bones are their Money (9-4) def Milwaukee Muggers (7-6), 199.88 to 143.04: Muggers just flat out ran into a buzzsaw. As mentioned, this one saw Muggers holding a 1 point lead into MNF, but up against Ja'Maar Chase and Joe Mixon, with only Tee Higgins remaining for Muggers. Chase and Mixon combined for almost 75 points, to turn this into a rout. Bones was already safe for the playoffs, while we'll discuss the Muggers' potential playoff scenarios below.
- Bar Flies (9-4) def Beer with Mahomeys (5-8), 155.76 to 139.80: This was also settled by Sunday night. Mahomeys got massive scores out of DK Metcalf, the Chargers DST, and James Conner, but it wasn't enough. Bar Flies didn't get points where I'd expect them (Cowboys DST, Jahmyr Gibbs), but got a huge game from Brock Purdy (which was really all Deebo, but Brock gave him the ball), and strong performances from Devonta Smith, Rachaad White, Jake Ferguson, Zach Charbonnet, and even the kicker, Brandon Aubrey, to take this one down. A true team effort. Bar Flies was already safe for the playoffs, and Mahomeys will be on life support from here.
- Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (7-6) def Hop To It (4-9), 139.62 to 102.12: Both teams had some bye weeks from key players, and neither team had a very impressive score overall, but IPA/Blonde was sitting on a commanding 70-point lead going into MNF. Hop To It had Trevor Lawrence and Evan McPherson remaining, while IPA/Blonde had Calvin Ridley and Brandon McManus. It was going to be nearly impossible for Hop to come back and win this, but Trevor Lawrence was knocked out of the game with a potentially devastating ankle injury, and that's all she wrote. IPA/Blonde's playoff options will be covered below, but this is the end of the line for Hop To It. Hop is now eliminated from the playoff race at 4-8.
- Finger Lakes Fury (6-7) def fill my Kupp (4-9), 167.30 to 118.30: And the Fury Train keeps on rollin'. Fury had a massive lead going into MNF with one player left to go and none playing on Kupp's roster, so this was a foregone conclusion at that point. Big days for Tua, Derrick Henry, Michael Pittman and Christian Watson powered the Fury over Kupp. We'll cover the potential playoff scenarios for Fury below, but this is also the end of the road for Kupp, who is now eliminated from the playoffs at 4-8.
- Big Gulps (5-7) def Dawg Pound (6-7), 130.12 to 119.98: I suspect this was a somewhat stressful Monday Night for both teams. Big Gulps was done, with relatively even scoring across the roster behind leaders Jalen Hurts, Kyren Williams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Dawg was down by a substantial amount, but had Travis Etienne, Zay Jones, and Christian Kirk all going on Monday night. Dawg was projected a mere 7 points behind Big Gulps going into MNF. Etienne and Jones held up their end of the bargain, scoring over 30 combined, but Christian Kirk was lost to injury in the first quarter with only 3.6 points and did not return. That was enough, and Big Gulps got the win to stay on life support for the playoffs, while Dawg's road got a little harder.
Playoff Picture
First round bye locked up
Prestige Worldwide (10-3) has now secured either the #1 or #2 seed and a first round bye. If Prestige wins this week, it will automatically be the #1 seed. If Prestige loses this week, the outcome will be decided by...
Playing for a first-round bye
Bar Flies (9-4) and Bones are their Money (9-4) face each other this week. The winner of the matchup will have either the #1 or #2 seed and a first round bye. If Prestige wins, the winner is automatically #2. If Prestige loses, however, it depends on who wins. Bones beat Prestige H2H, while Prestige beat Bar Flies H2H, so the best Bar Flies can do with a win is the #2 seed. Bones could take the #1 seed with a win and a Prestige loss.
The loser of this matchup is locked into the #3 seed, with a 2-game advantage over 4th place and one game to play.
The 7 (and 8) win outcomes
We have five teams who can finish at 7 wins or better. The Muggers (7-6) and IPA/Blonde (7-6) can advance to 8 wins and a lock with a win. Big Gulps (6-7), Dawg (6-7) and Fury (6-7) can get into the playoffs or a potential tiebreaker scenario with a win. IPA/Blonde and Dawg match up this week, so a Dawg win not only helps Dawg but it prevents IPA/Blonde from reaching 8 wins. Muggers faces Big Gulps this week, so a Gulps win not only helps Dawg but it prevents Muggers from reaching 8 wins.
Here are the tiebreaker scenarios that are relevant:
- Muggers loses (7-7) and Gulps (7-7) wins, IPA/Blonde loses (7-7) and Dawg wins (7-7), Fury wins (7-7): Now we need a H2H2H2H2H tiebreaker for 3 spots. Ugh. As best as I can tell, the first tiebreaker when you have multiple teams with the same winning record as each other and unequal games played between them is winning percentage amongst tied teams. As best as I can tell, Muggers is 4 and 1 (.800) against every other team which is the highest, and thus would advance. It would devolve to H2H2H2H with the remaining 4. The two teams leading here are Fury at 2-1 (0.667) and Dawg at 3-2 (.600), so Fury would advance. Now we have H2H2H between Dawg, Gulps, and IPA/Blonde. In this scenario Gulps would be 2-1 (.667), Dawg 2-2 (.500), and IPA/Blonde 1-2 (.333). Gulps would advance and Dawg and IPA/Blonde are out in the cold.
- Muggers loses (7-7) and Gulps wins (7-7), IPA/Blonde loses (7-7) and Dawg wins (7-7), Fury loses (6-8): Fury is out. We have H2H2H2H amongst the remaining for 3 spots. Muggers is 3-1 (.750) against the remaining three which is the best. Muggers advances. Amongst the remaining three, looks like Gulps is 2-1 (.667), Dawg is 2-2 (.500), and IPA/Blonde is 1-2 (.333), so Gulps advances. Then it's H2H and in this scenario Dawg is 2-0 over IPA/Blonde, so Dawg advances and IPA/Blonde is eliminated.
- Muggers win (8-6) and Gulps (6-8) loses, IPA/Blonde loses (7-7) and Dawg wins (7-7), Fury wins (7-7): Muggers advances and isn't part of the tiebreaker. Gulps is out. Based on H2H2H record, Dawg would then be 3-0 (1.000) against IPA/Blonde and Fury. IPA/Blonde would be 0-3 (.000) against Dawg and Fury. And Fury would be 1-2 (.333) against Dawg and IPA/Blonde. Dawg advances, and we replay the tiebreaker H2H between IPA/Blonde and Fury. IPA/Blonde and Fury only faced once, with Fury winning. Thus Fury advances and IPA/Blonde is eliminated.
- Muggers loses (7-7) and Gulps (7-7) wins, IPA/Blonde wins (8-6) and Dawg loses (6-8), Fury wins (7-7): IPA/Blonde advances, and we have a 3-way between Muggers, Gulps, and Fury, for 2 playoff spots. Muggers is 2-1 (.667) here, Gulps is 1-2 (.333), and Fury 0-2 (.000), so Muggers advances. It then comes down to H2H with Gulps and Fury, and Gulps advances. Fury is out.
I left out both Muggers and IPA/Blonde winning, because then Gulps and Dawg don't get to 7 wins and Fury's outcome is based purely on their own game (win and you're in). And if Fury also loses, then there are zero 7-7 teams and the final spot comes down to 6-8 tiebreakers. I also left out Muggers winning, IPA/Blonde losing, and Fury losing, because then IPA/Blonde and Dawg both get in at 7-7 and there is no need for tiebreakers.
So for each team:
- Muggers: Appears to be in the playoffs in every scenario, even with a loss, no matter what happens. Congrats!
- IPA/Blonde: In the playoffs with a win. With a loss, requires the Muggers to win and Fury to lose to get in a 7-7 with no tiebreaker needed. Loses all tiebreakers.
- Gulps: In with a win. Gulps wins all possible tiebreakers if they get to 7-7.
- Dawg: Winning isn't enough. With a win, Dawg is in unless Muggers loses and Fury wins, as Dawg is left out in a 5-way tie.
- Fury: Winning isn't enough. Fury is in with a 5-way tiebreaker. Fury is in with a win and an IPA/Blonde loss, advancing in a Fury/IPA/Dawg tiebreaker. But Fury is out if IPA/Blonde wins and Muggers loses, not advancing in a Fury/Muggers/Gulps tiebreaker.
Holy crap that's confusing. Someone check my math on this maybe?
The 6-win scenario
All the above doesn't mean you need 7 wins to get in. If Gulps, Dawg, and Fury all lose, then Patronus has won (facing Fury this week) to get to 6-8, and Mahomeys only needs to beat Kupp to make it a 5-way tie at 6-8, or a Mahomeys loss makes it a 4-way tie at 6-8.
Sorry. I'm not doing those tiebreaker. My brain is broken. If anyone else wants to take it on, be my guest.
But suffice to say, the three teams currently sitting at 5-8 are NOT out of it.
Week 14 Preview
- Prestige Worldwide (10-3) v Hop To It (4-8): Honestly not much to talk about here. Prestige already has locked up the first round bye, and it's just a matter of whether they make the #1 or #2 seed, and could still end up #1 with a loss. Hop To It is out of it entirely.
- Bar Flies (9-4) v Bones are their Money (9-4): The winner of this game gets to avoid the quarterfinal and jump straight into the semis with a bye. Given how crazy fantasy can be and one bad week in the playoffs can send you packing, that's a massive advantage. So a lot on the line here. No apparent bye week issues for the final bye week of the season. Should be a good matchup!
- Milwaukee Muggers (7-6) v Big Gulps (6-7): Not a very important matchup for the Muggers. They are in for the playoffs even with a loss if my math is right, and even further is locked into the 4 seed in every scenario except IPA/Blonde winning and the Muggers losing. But in that scenario, IPA/Blonde would be the 4 and Muggers would be the 5, and the 4/5 seeds face each other anyway, so there's no difference. Not so for Big Gulps. A win locks Big Gulps into the playoffs, and a loss requires a LOT of other things to happen just to have a chance at a tiebreaker at 6-8, so this is critical. Big game here, at least for one of the two teams!
- Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (7-6) v Dawg Pound (6-7): Critical game for both teams. IPA/Blonde is into the playoffs with a win, but loses all tiebreakers with a loss. The only way IPA/Blonde can make the playoffs with a loss is with a Muggers win AND a Fury loss. For Dawg, it's similar. Losing here means a lot has to happen outside just for a shot at a 6-8 tiebreaker, but a win--while not sufficient to guarantee a playoff spot--makes the playoffs MUCH more likely. Both teams have to be thinking must-win here. IPA/Blonde for a guarantee of a spot and not having to rely on any outside help, and Dawg because the outside help needed in case of a loss is a VERY long shot scenario.
- Finger Lakes Fury (6-7) v Beer is my Patronus (5-8): This is obviously a must-win for Patronus. A Fury win means not only that 6-8 isn't enough to get into a tiebreaker, but that Patronus would be 5-9 and outside that tiebreaker anyway. So the importance can't be overstated. For Fury, a loss only gives a long shot scenario at the playoffs, while a win--also not sufficient--ensures that you have much better odds of winning the tiebreaker. And if both Muggers and IPA/Blonde win, a win for Fury requires no tiebreaker to get that playoff spot. Fury is the top-scoring team in the league to date, but really needs to be shooting for a win and not trying to rely on a 6-8 tiebreaker. Fury's last 3 wins have come against teams that wouldn't be involved in a potential 6-8 tiebreaker, drastically reducing the odds of getting in.
- Beer with Mahomeys (5-8) v fill my Kupp (4-9): Life support for Mahomeys and Kupp is out entirely. Must-win for Mahomeys to have a piece of a potential long shot 6-8 tie, but even a win will be for naught if any of the 6-7 teams win this week. Luckily they're facing a team in Kupp with their starting QB on bye, which helps the odds.
So that's it. We're in the final week. 4 teams are locked for the playoffs, and two spots up for grabs. It's been a long hard season, but this week determines who is definitely shipping beer and who still has a shot at receiving some!